Just about 30k miles, and 3 street crashes (not including tip overs and very slow speed drops). But, and there is a big but, all 3 were in the first 10k miles, with the first 2 occurring in the first 5k miles.
Anyway i think that your math theory is flawed and doesnt work. I bet if you look at a majority of the crashes that folks were in being a new and inexperienced rider is one of the top reasons.
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