i would vote for .40 cal
i have a sigma 9mm, an XD40 and a kimber 1911 fullsize. i would carry the 40 on a reg basis if i carried one. i do have a holster for the 9 and it is easy to conceal under most light jackets or loose shirts. even with double stack mags
the 1911 would be a little trickier to conceal but I'm on the smaller side. 5'9 165lbs.
as far as recoil, the difference between the 9mm and the 40 are almost nil. may be the brand of guns. the 45 is obviously a little more felt recoil
the 9 and 40 are 4 inch bbl the 1911 is a fullsize 5 in bbl
as far as shooting, the sigma works fine for,, never had a FTF or FTE in 6 years with it, it is not exactly accurate but once you're used to it placing 3 inch groups is easy enough at 25 feet.
the XD is great. no issues with it either although it's newer. accuracy is great out of the box. if you're a good shooter you will have no problem shooting tight groups at 25 feet and hitting right where you aim.
both the sigma and xd are easy to take down and clean. 40 cal bullets are plentiful and relatively inexpensive.
the .45 is absolutely amazing. but i just got it, so no long term results. shooting it is fantastic. very accurate, very reliable, recoil is definitely there but i wouldn't use that as a reason not to carry it.
the xd was well under the 700 mark they have a nice compact option.
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